University of California, Riverside

Water Science and Policy Center

Dr. Jean-Daniel Rinaudo

Seminar Presentation

Dr. Jean-Daniel Rinaudo


  • Time:  September 28, 2010, 12:00 - 1:30
  • Location:  Orbach Science Library, Conference Room 240

"Simulating Future Residential Water Demand in France"


In southern and south-western France, population growth and climate change is expected to lead to a significant increase of residential water demand by 2030.  The quantification of future water demand is however not a trivial exercise given the number of factors that have to be considered.  Although operation tools exist and are being used in other countries to forecast future water demand (e.g. IWR Main in the U.S.), French Water Utilities have no experience in that field.  Our EAU&3E research project aims at filling this gap through a survey of existing tools and practices in selected countries (USA and Australia) and the development of new water demand forecasting tools.

This communication presents a model prototype which was developed to simulate future residential water demand in areas characterized by rapid demographic growth in southern France.  The model is applied to a case study covering more than 300 municipalities (600,00 inhabitants).  It first calculates theoretical water requirements of the additional population expected to settle in the region by 2030.  It then estimates investment needed to extend water supply systems and calculates the price increase necessary to recover cost.  The model then simulates household's response to price increase, considering different possible tariffs (proportional, increasing block, seasonal).  We consider two types of responses to price increase:  while most households will reduce water usage with a price elasticity that depends on the type of housing (-0.4 for detached houses and -0.2 for apartment flats), others may decide to drill a private tube-well in order to substitute cheap untreated raw water to expensive drinking water for outdoor uses.   Household's decision to drill a tube-well is simulated using a microeconomic model which calculates the profitability of a tube-well for each municipality, considering the geological conditions (groundwater accessibility) and current water tariffs.  The model is applied to a case study area covering 310 municipalities and used for simulating various scenarios.

About the Presenter:

Dr. Jean-Daniel Rinaudo, French Geological Survey, Cemagref, France

Jean-Daniel Rinaudo is currently working for the French Geological Survey (BRGM) where he is in charge of a small research group specialized in environmental and resource economics.  His current research focuses on the economic dimension of groundwater protection, including monetary valuation of pollution damage costs and microeconomic modeling of water user's behavior (urban and farming sectors).  Jean-Daniel is also involved in EU and French ANR funded research projects related to economic instruments such as water markets and water pricing.  Prior to joining BRGM, he worked as an agricultural economist with Cemagref and the International Water Management Institute in Pakistan where he analyzed the economic efficiency of water markets in irrigation systems and the political acceptability of institutional water reform.  He has published several papers on political acceptability of institutional water reform. He has published several papers on political and administrative corruption in irrigation systems in Pakistan.

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